Sunday, August 26, 2012

Godspeed you, spacewalker

We've learned that Neil Armstrong had died yesterday, August 25.

As commander of Apollo 11, he was the first person to walk on the Moon. And as Neil stepped out of the lunar module, he uttered the following; words that will be remembered for all time: "That's one small step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind." Neil was 82.

As an aerospace engineer and test pilot at NASA, Neil was also part of the same technology organization that pioneered an abundance of technologies that humankind enjoys today: solar energy, light-emitting diodes or LEDs, water purification, freeze drying, analysis software, and many more. (Visit this and this to learn more.)

In his intensity to bring man on the moon before the end of the decade, JFK addressed the United States Congress in 1961 with an ambitious goal to end the Space Race. He later added these memorable words--one that has been my favorite to this day: "We do this not because they are easy, but because they are hard."

I cannot imagine a more important milestone than the one thing we've looked upon every time we left the confines of our home--the high heavens. Conquering this frontier has advanced our humanity with great significance. And we applaud our voyagers for their passionate curiosity and iron will. Their level of courage is beyond any words can ever justify. I genuinely wish we were all like them.

Together with your colleagues in space, Buzz Aldrin and Michael Collins, we bid you godspeed, spacewalker.


We choose to go to the Moon.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Part 2: Windows stratagem

Sorry this continuation took way too long. Now is definitely the time to recognize this resumption, get back to the story, and finally, reveal the intricacies of this Windows stratagem.

Let's refresh a bit and gather a summary of Part 1 from memory. (Or you may do so to check the last post too!) We've described Microsoft's lost opportunities in a variety of areas, particularly mobility and the Cloud. We've defined where these lost opportunities went and how competitors outplayed and outranked them in these contests. We've touched on how Google reaped most of the things that Ray Ozzie dreamed about, delivered in his titanic memo to Microsoft ranks, but to minuscule organization-altering effects.

And now, back to regular programming.

3. Apple. Last Monday, the storied innovation machine breached a record market value of $623.5 billion, making Apple the most valuable company ever. (Well, the previous record holder was Microsoft and its $621 billion high--a perfect fit to the conditions of our subject matter.) To put it another way, they're more than twice as valuable as Microsoft (current value: $258 billion). To put it in another, another way, Apple is more valuable than Microsoft + Google + Facebook + Yahoo combined. That is just crazy!

So what happened here? We all know of Steve's genius (that would be Jobs, not Ballmer) and how he transformed/revolutionized industries with consistent success. While Microsoft is credited for bringing computers inside just about every home, Jobs took it further by placing devices in other places: the living room, our pockets, handbags, public spaces et cetera. Before Apple came in with touchstone devices we now use everyday, Microsoft had every opportunity to pull off a lasting victory. During that time, devices that were "smart" were quite uncommon. True, these resided on personal digital assistants, or PDAs, but they were largely a category that could be described as experimental--only a few people you knew would be armed with them. Heck, people bought PDAs for the luxury it brought them but they were largely unusable. There was nothing much you could do with it!

Well, this is effectively the main reason PDAs never went mainstream--and the very reason most of us have smart devices in this day and age: apps variety. With apps numbering by the hundreds of thousands, there's no way you won't get your money's worth: as versatile as a Swiss army knife--and more. And right now, Apple leads the pack here with absolute kingship. In hindsight, Microsoft failed to put developers to work in their PDA soirée. And another reason--but definitely still a debatable one--was the reliance on OEMs to do the hardware magic (i.e. insistence on using a clunky stylus, poor battery life). Apple's desire to work on everything--lock, stock and barrel--proved to be a success over the long term. And to cut the long story short, Apple now usurps a position of power that no company has been able to achieve since the days of Standard Oil.

So where to from here? Does Microsoft have a chance to get back into the game?

I think so.

In the past three months, Microsoft has unleashed significant movements in their Windows product arsenal. Let's look at each one.

Microsoft Surface. In what is considered a break from tradition, Microsoft unveiled their very own tablet on June 18th at the surprise of most tech pundits. CEO Steven Ballmer was there to introduce the product with Windows President Steven Sinofsky. (At one point during the demo, the tablet would indadvertedly fail in Sinofsky's hands, causing him a mild panic as he ran to get a new unit. In a way, this has been known as the typical Microsoft product demo: something would always prove to be glitchy at the face of an amused audience.) The Surface, of course, has Apple's unified product strategy written all over it, a flattery that was concealed through Ballmer's presentation that Microsoft had always been in the hardware business, i.e. mouse and Xbox. Okay fine!

I think--and more than anything--the Surface is a direct output to compete directly with Android and iOS on Microsoft's own terms. There is also a standing bet here that a transformative tablet, one that ultimately replaces the PC, can exist as opposed to the "3rd device" principle behind the iPad. One thing is certain here: Microsoft's OEMs did not like this move at all. But here's the other thing that's certain. Microsoft doesn't really care if this move alienates them. The OEMs are not doing enough hardware innovation to stop Windows' market share on mobile devices from dropping to a measly 1-2%. The Surface is a great move and has every potential to succeed if it performs exactly as advertised. Most especially if you couple it with this one below. (Surface arrives on October 26.)



Windows Phone 8. Two days after unveiling Surface, Microsoft tells all about their upcoming phone OS. There are many remarkable things shown in the demo, but I'd like to highlight one thing that sets it apart: all Windows devices--from desktops and laptops to touch-enabled tablets and phones--will have shared code. This is mind-blowing as this would make development across all device types easy enough for developers to make the switch. Games developed for desktops/laptops would also run on native code--with "minor" tweaks--on tablets and smartphones with ease. This, if true, is huge.

The subject of tight-knit integration between all Microsoft devices is now clear and, interestingly enough, there are a lot of eager carriers who's in on the potential of the whole eco-system. (Mobile carriers are the single most critical piece of any smartphone distribution model.) Windows Phone 8 may not be sufficient for the time being (I personally think the UI is gorgeous), but the partner and developer prospects will be very significant. I can see this one putting up a lot of hurt for Android and iOS. Windows 8 will be available in 180 countries later this year.

Okay, what else?

Windows 8 Upgrade: $39.99 by October 26. The pricing took me by surprise. Knowing Microsoft, we were all expecting an upgrade fee somewhere between $100 to $250 for Windows 8. Instead of a complex upgrade model, Windows 8 will be available for all Windows XP, Vista and 7 users in 131 markets for $39.99 until January 31, 2013. This, while throwing in Media Center for free, is quite a steal. Looking at Apple's recent Mac OS X Mountain Lion upgrade, Windows 8 is twice as expensive. But for traditional Microsoft users, this offer will be too much of a good deal to pass up. On timing, it's not perfect but it will do. In fact, the cheap upgrade path will be a great start for Windows 8 sales. The upgrade path for XP and Vista machines also means that a good number of people will buy new computers to keep up with the hardware demands of version 8. It's almost ingenuous, except, well, it keeps reminding me about how Apple is--unofficially--feeding them their next moves.

Office 15. While not part of the Windows product family, Office 15 (also known as Office 2013), announced on July 16th at an invitation-only event, is definitely part of Microsoft's Windows stratagem. The biggest item of note here is the uniformity of Office across all Windows 8 devices including very promising integrations with the Cloud (through Office 365) and social networks (Microsoft and Facebook are close friends; FB uses Skype, which MS owns), even touch capabilities through Windows 8-enabled tablets. Office 15's UI was also demonstrated to take advantage of Windows 8 capabilities, showing how it was written up to work seamlessly with Microsoft's upcoming OS.

Used by at least 1 billion people around the world, Office is easily the most prevalent productivity software used anywhere. This is definitely positioned to arm Windows 8 with what Microsoft claims to be the best software productivity suite available in the market today. (On a sad note, XP and Vista users will not have access to Office 2013. A version for the iPad will also take some time before coming out.)



There's a lot more going on here but it's pretty clear that Microsoft intends to fight Apple and Google head-on. There's a retail strategy that aims to do something similar to Apple's beautifully crafted stores. (Microsoft plans to build 44 outlets by mid-2013; Apple currently has about 300 stores worldwide). There's also a recent attempt to unseat Google Apps through Outlook.com, Hotmail's eventual successor.

Overall, Microsoft has a lot of work on their hands before they can come out positive. But if this is where they're planning to go, Microsoft's current customers would find their way staying, if not reinforcing altogether by buying more devices. Those who aren't, well, I suppose Ballmer and Co. will need to do more to make the switch worthwhile. Which makes this really interesting--Microsoft is fighting back strong. And it sounds like they're getting their groove on--finally.